Simulating Spatial Patterns of Urban Growth in Kampala, Uganda, and Its Impact on Flood Risk

Abstract

The case study reported in this chapter approaches this question by adopting a geo-computational approach: it details the use of existing urban growth (Pérez-Molina et al., 2017) and flood models (Sliuzas et al., 2013a) of Kampala (Uganda) for designing future urban growth scenarios and testing their flooding impact. Specifically, the scenarios seek to reproduce and operationalise building densification options available for inclusion in the Kampala Physical Development Plan (KPDP), commissioned by the Kampala Capital City Authority in 2012 (ROM Transport et al., 2012). With this in mind, our research aims were to: (1) identify building densification options proposed in the KPDP; (2) formalise these options within the existing urban growth model (of Pérez-Molina et al., 2017); and (3) apply the existing urban growth/flood models (Pérez-Molina et al., 2017; Sliuzas et al., 2013a) to predict future built-up patterns and their impact on flooding (Figure 17.1)