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Tác giả: Izquierdo-Verdiguier E.; Người hướng dẫn: -; Người tham gia: Zurita-Milla R.; Ault T.R.; Schwartz M.D. (2018.) - The spatial analysis shows a significantly delayed spring onset in the northern US whereas in the western and the Great Lakes region, spring onset advances. The mean temporal variabilities of the indices were analyzed for the nine major climatic regions of the US and results showed a clear division into three main groups: early, average and late spring onset. Finally, the region belonging to each group was mapped. These examples show the potential of our four phenological products to improve understanding of the responses of ecosystems to a changing climate.
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Tác giả: Petr, M.; Người hướng dẫn: -; Người tham gia: - (2015) - The inherent uncertainty of climate change impacts is one of the main challenges for adaptation in environmental management. The lack of knowledge about climate impacts on ecosystem services at high spatial and temporal resolution limits when and what adaptation measures should be taken. We addressed these limits by assessing four ecosystem services—forest production, tree growth, sequestered carbon, and tourism potential—under drought or climate change. To support adaptation, we adapted the existing concept of ‘dynamic adaptive policy pathways’ for forest management by developing an action expiration chart, which helps to define expiry dates for forestry actions using ecosystem services delivery thresholds. We assessed services for Sitka spruce, Scots pine, and pedunculate oak on t...
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Tác giả: van der Veen, A.; Petr, M.; Người hướng dẫn: -; Người tham gia: - (2014) - Thesis explore uncertainty from a decision maker’s perspective; investigate uncertainty from a modeller’s perspective ;reports on the outputs from the drought risk assessment across Britain for the three major species and provides a better understanding of quantified climate change uncertainty; highlights changes of the main forest ecosystem goods and services under climate change impacts over the next 80 years, and suggests how they can be incorporated within the dynamic adaptive policy pathways approach modified for forestry application; reports on changes in forest planners’ decisions about expiry dates for forestry management actions due to new climate change information and discuss the barriers for uptake of this information in the forest planning; reflects on the key findings,...
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Tác giả: Duan, Q.; Xia, J.; Người hướng dẫn: -; Người tham gia: - (2017) - This paper addresses the impact of climate change on the water cycle and resource changes in the Eastern Monsoon Region of China (EMRC). It also represents a summary of the achievements made by the National Key Basic Research and Development Program (2010CB428400), where the major research focuses are detection and attribution, extreme floods and droughts, and adaptation of water resources management. Therefore, climate change is making a significant impact and will be a risk to the EMRC, which covers almost all of the eight major river basins, such as the Yangtze River, Yellow River, Huaihe River, Haihe River, and Pearl River, and to the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (middle line). To ensure water security, it is urgently necessary to take adaptive countermeasures and redu...
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Tác giả: Turkington, T.A.R.; Người hướng dẫn: -; Người tham gia: - (2016) - Flood type classification is an optimal tool to cluster floods with similar meteorological triggering conditions. Under climate change these flood types may change differently as well as new flood types develop. This paper presents a new methodology to classify flood types, particularly for use in climate change impact studies. A weather generator is coupled with a conceptual rainfall-runoff model to create long synthetic records of discharge to efficiently build an inventory with high number of flood events. Significant discharge days are classified into causal types using k-means clustering of temperature and precipitation indicators capturing differences in rainfall amount, antecedent rainfall and snow-cover and day of year. From climate projections of bias-corrected temperature ...
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Tác giả: Banerjee, S.; Người hướng dẫn: -; Người tham gia: - (2015) - This report documents the state of biodiversity, ecosystem goods and services, and the dependency of people on the ecosystems of the reserve. It also examines linkages between different drivers of change, identifies levels of vulnerability and the coping strategies of the surrounding communities, and recommends future strategies for adaptation based on the research. This report can be used as a valuable tool for researchers, development planners, and policy makers working on conservation and development in the Koshi Tappu Wildlife Reserve and its surrounding area.
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Tác giả: Soltani, A.; Người hướng dẫn: -; Người tham gia: - (2016) - The need for more comparisons among models is widely recognized. This study aimed to compare three different modelling approaches for their capability to simulate and predict trends and patterns of winter wheat yield in Western Germany. The three modelling approaches included an empirical model, a process-based model (LINTUL2), and a metamodel derived from the process-based model. The models outcomes were aggregated to general climate zones level of Western Germany to allow for a comparison with agricultural census data for validation purposes. The spatial patterns and temporal trends of winter wheat yield seemed to be better represented by the empirical model (R2= 70%, RMSE= 0.48 t ha-1 yr-1, and CV-RMSE= 8%) than by the LINTUL2 model (R2= 65%, RMSE= 0.67 t ha-1 yr-1, and CV-RMSE=1...
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Tác giả: Wolfe, D.W.; Sweet, S.K.; Người hướng dẫn: -; Người tham gia: - (2017) - Here we focus on the impacts of the drought on farmers in New York State (NY), an economically important agricultural state in the Northeast. We found that in several regions across NY 2015-16 winter snowfall, and 2016 growing season precipitation and streamflows were near or below the 10th percentile of the previous 60 years; and 2016 air temperatures were near or above the 90th percentile of the previous 60 years. Model estimates suggest NY state-wide crop irrigation water use could increase by 3–8 times in dry years compared to average growing seasons, increasing seasonal usage by millions of cubic meters. This highlights the potential for significant increases in water withdrawals in NY, with implications for water resources, particularly as the climate changes.
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Tác giả: -; Người hướng dẫn: -; Người tham gia: - (2015) - Tackling climate change is central to achieving a sustainable future for the world’s growing population and food security must lie at the heart of these efforts. Climate change is one of the key drivers of biodiversity loss. The stressors and risks posed by climate change to the various sectors of genetic resources for food and agriculture (plants, animals, forests, aquatic resources, invertebrates and micro-organisms) are manifold. However, genetic resources for food and agriculture are also expected to play a significant role in mitigation of and adaptation to the consequences of climate change in support of efforts to achieve food security and nutrition objectives. Genetic resources could contribute greatly to our efforts to cope with climate change, but in many cases the magnitu...
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Tác giả: Pederson, G.T.; McAfee, S.A.; Người hướng dẫn: -; Người tham gia: - (2017) - In this management-guided study, we use a very large suite of synthetic climate scenarios in a statistical modeling framework to simultaneously evaluate how (1) average temperature and precipitation changes, (2) initial basin conditions, and (3) temporal characteristics of the input climate data influence water-year flow in the Upper Colorado River. The results here suggest that existing studies may underestimate the degree of uncertainty in future streamflow, particularly under moderate temperature and precipitation changes. These results suggest that simple testing, like the analyses presented in this paper, may be helpful in understanding differences between existing studies or in identifying specific conditions for physically based mechanistic modeling. Both options could reduce...
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