A Model to Predict Dispersion of the Alien Nutria, Myocastor coypus Molina, 1782 (Rodentia), in Northern Iran

Abstract

Nutria (Myocastor coypus Molina, 1782) is a semi-aquatic rodent with a native geographical range in South America. It was introduced to Iran at the beginning of the 20th century. The Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) was used to describe the realised niche of this invasive species and to predict the area under risk of invasion in Northern Iran using three categories of environmental variables, i.e. topography, land use/land cover and climate. Our results indicated that the spatial distribution of the nutria was highly affected by vegetation density and water resource. Furthermore, about 48.7% of the land area in Northern Iran can be considered as potentially suitable habitat for nutria. The results of ENFA showed that areas with a higher probability of invasion risk were mostly located near the Caspian Sea. The results also demonstrated that 62% of the distribution range of this species was inside the protected areas that could be a threat for the biodiversity of Northern Iran. We sought to identify the areas under risk of nutria invasion that need more attention by conservationists.